Locale

The instantaneous reproduction number (R) is estimated using the daily incidence of new cases, while including effects of social distancing, population density, and combined temperature and humidity lagged over the prior 14 days.

This model projects the effect of a theoretical May 15 midway return of normal travel to non-essential businesses. Future cases are estimated from predicted values of R.

SOURCE: COVID-Lab

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Los Angeles

The instantaneous reproduction number (R) is estimated using the daily incidence of new cases, while including effects of social distancing, population density, and combined temperature and humidity lagged over the prior 14 days.

This model projects the effect of a theoretical May 15 midway return of normal travel to non-essential businesses. Future cases are estimated from predicted values of R.

SOURCE: COVID-Lab

Anne Arundel County, Maryland

The instantaneous reproduction number (R) is estimated using the daily incidence of new cases, while including effects of social distancing, population density, and combined temperature and humidity lagged over the prior 14 days.

This model projects the effect of a theoretical May 15 midway return of normal travel to non-essential businesses. Future cases are estimated from predicted values of R.

SOURCE: COVID-Lab

Density is destiny

There’s no simple, one-size-fits-all protocol for reopening the economy, said David Rubin, director of PolicyLab at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. Rubin is developing a model to forecast how reopening 260 large U.S. counties on May 15 would play out if residents maintained only half the social distancing measures now in place.

The good news, Rubin said, is that modest-size, relatively spread-out cities will probably have room to make adjustments. But if restrictions ease too much, New York and similarly dense cities will rapidly see infections spike again.

“It comes back really quick, and the peaks are much higher than what you’re seeing right now,” Rubin said. “It was sobering. I was more optimistic before we did our models.”

This is why epidemiologists are cautioning state leaders to inch toward reopening with tentative, staggered steps.

SOURCE: Washington Post

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Santa Clara CA

Santa Clara CA. Estimation of R.

The instantaneous reproduction number (R) is estimated using the daily incidence of new cases, while including effects of social distancing, population density, and combined temperature and humidity lagged over the prior 14 days.

Santa Clara CA. Projected cases through August 2020.

This model projects the effect of a theoretical May 15 midway return of normal travel to non-essential businesses. Future cases are estimated from predicted values of R.

SOURCE: COVID-Lab